NFL Week 17 Predictions

And so we come to the last week of the season, always a bittersweet time. We football fans still have an exciting month of playoff games, but then comes the great emptiness that is the offseason, a vast, barren wasteland stretching until next August.

For we who try to distinguish themselves predicting game winners, the last week of the season is one of the hardest, because you never know who will play. It's a week when a sad-sack team can beat a Super Bowl contender, because the latter plays its second and third stringers. I have previously commented on the tactic of resting starters during the season, but even I will concede the value of resting stars in the last week. Actually, teams started benching their players last week, but I still managed to eke out an 11 game week.

Several games this week have playoff implications, and the scenarios are often so complex, I will just link to Jeremy Stone's explanations.

Onto this week.

Dolphins @ Ravens
Baltimore is still in contention for a playoff spot, but they would need a lot of help. Miami, under interim coach Jim Bates, has managed to drag itself out of the AFC gutter. But, let's face it, they are still the Dolphins. Prediction: Ravens.

Steelers @ Bills
If Pittsburgh were to play their starters, this would be one heck of a game. The Steelers are the class of the AFC, and Buffalo is playing like it should be part of that club. But, the Steelers won't play their starters. Prediction: Bills.

Saints @ Panthers
Both teams are battling for a wild card spot, and the loser is likely out. Carolina can still nab a 5th seed, believe it or not, and the scenario is plausible (win here, Vikings and Rams lose). The Panthers are playing like one of the best teams in the NFC right now. The only reason they are fighting for a wildcard rather than a division title is their atrocious 1-7 start. I have commented several times in previous weeks about the incredible job John Fox has done in Carolina this season, not to mention the job those key players still standing have done. This is a very dangerous team. The Saints have managed to gut out some wins, and took advantage of Atlanta's decision to play with backups last week. They are just not in the same league as Carolina. Prediction: Panthers.

Packers @ Bears
Last week, I used a little reverse psychology. Knowing the Packers usually go against my predictions (I saw they will win, they lose, and vice versa), I predicted them to lose so that they would win. Actually, I really did expect them to lose. Their win messed up my pretty playoff predictions. Having earned the third seed in the NFC, again, they will face the sixth seed, likely the Panthers. Oh boy. Anyway, the Pack will likely play with backups most of this game. The starters will get a series or two, but that's about it. Brett will keep his streak alive. Even with backups, they will overcome the Bears and avenge an ugly loss early in the season. Prediction: Packers.

Browns @ Texans
Houston looks like it belongs in the NFL, even though they have another losing record. The Browns, well, remind me of David Akers in that TV commercial with Pennington and Culpepper choosing teams. Prediction: Texans.

29ers @ Patriots
The Patriots will play their second stringers, and they will still overwhelm San Francisco. Prediction: Patriots.

Bengals @ Eagles
The Eagle backups looked pretty bad against the Ram starters last week. I'm reading that Andy Reid may play McNabb and company a little more this week, which he needs to do to prepare for the playoffs. The Bengals have made a mighty go of it this season, under Carson Palmer. If Palmer were healthy, I would pick the Bengals in an upset. But Kitna just doesn't quite have the oomph this year. And McNabb against the Bengal defense should produce some points quickly. Prediction: Eagles.

Jets @ Rams
This game has ramifications for both teams. The Jets control the 5th seed on the AFC playoffs, but a loss could drop them to a tie with Denver and Buffalo, if they both win. Only two of those three teams can make the playoffs, and the Jets would be the odd-man out. The Rams need to win, and get some help from Washington to make the playoffs. They actually still have a chance to win the division, by winning here and seeing the Seahawks lose. The Jets have one more thing on the line: they have not played well against better teams all season, not a good trend to be taking into the playoffs. They will be motivated to do well against a playoff-caliber team, even if they are from the NFC West, to get that monkey off their backs. Besides, they are the better team, with Curtis Martin running against one of the worst run defenses in the league. Prediction: Jets.

Lions @ Titans
Both teams have capable offenses and less than capable defenses. Billy Volek is making a name for himself quickly, filling in for Steve McNair. The Lions have rookie Kevin Jones, who looks like he could finally fill the void left by Barry Sanders. I'll have to go with the better passing game, since the passer can put up points faster than the running back. Prediction: Titans.

Vikings @ Redskins
For the second season in a row, the Vikings close out the season needing a win to make the playoffs and go on the road to face a losing team wearing a red uniform. The Redskin defense has been the bright spot of the season for Joe Gibbs, but their offense is showing some life since Ramsey replaced Brunell as the starting quarterback. Of course, Clinton Portis is out, which will hurt that. This will not be an easy game for Minnesota. They should win, but the Redskins could well upset them. I really feel that upset coming, but I will stick with the Vikings to do what they should do. Prediction: Vikings.

Bucs @ Cardinals
The Bucs, after a brief spurt when Griese came in, have faded back the lower realms of the NFC. The players are grumbling against head coach Jon Gruden. Arizona has played hard all season. If Dennis Green had kept McCown as the starter all along, this game might have had playoff ramifications. But he made his move, and the Cardinals get another losing season. But, as I said, they have played hard all year and won't stop this week. Prediction: Cardinals.

Falcons @ Seahawks
This game could be meaningless by kickoff. If the Rams lose in the early game, the Seahawks will clinch the division title. But the Seahawks would be wise to play their starters most of the game, because they need the work if they have any hope of doing anything in the playoffs. The backup Falcons look like, well, backups. Prediction: Seahawks.

Colts @ Broncos
If Denver wins, they are in. Last year, these two teams met in the regular season then again in the wild-card round of the playoffs. That scenario is looking likely this year as well. If the Broncos and Jets win, Denver would be 6th seed and would face Indy next week. You can bet Tony Dungy won't be playing his starters too much in the Denver icebox. An interesting question, though, is about Peyton Manning. While he has already broken Marino's record, he has a long streak going for consecutive starts, second only to Brett Favre's. Will Dungy give Manning a series or two at the beginning, to keep that streak alive? Or will he save Peyton, who has obviously had a lot of work this season, and ignore the streak? Either way, the Colts will play backups most of the time. Prediction: Broncos.

Jaguars @ Raiders
The Jags have made great strides this season, but have fallen short of the playoffs. Still they are a pretty good team, unlike the aged Raiders. Prediction: Jaguars.

Chiefs @ Chargers
The Chargers would do well to play their starting defense most or all of the game, even though their seeding is set. They had the Colts in the bag last week, only to make like Seattle and blow the second half of the fourth quarter. With the caliber of AFC playoff offenses, that defense needs to do a better job, and getting work against the Chief offense will help them. If the starting offense sits out most of the game, Philip Rivers will finally get some action, and that would be useful for the Chargers, who in the offseason will have to decide what to do with Brees. Though the Chief defense is bad, a backup offense will still struggle. (This is why I hate last week games. If the Chargers play their starters on both sides, like a regular season game, the Chargers will win. But if they don't, the Chiefs will. And I don't know who will be playing, since I'm not privy to Marty's decision making.) Prediction: Chiefs.

Cowboys @ Giants
After a long, brutal stretch of games against top defenses, Eli Manning finally gets a break to close out his rookie season. The Cowboy defense is atrocious this year. While Dallas does have an exciting rookie of their own, running back Julius Jones, that's about all they have. The Giant defense isn't that bad, ranked 11th in the league. Of course, they are pretty poor against the rush. Eli will be able to put up points faster than Jones will, so the younger Manning will taste his first NFL victory. Prediction: Giants.

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 149-91

The News Media

Previously, I sarcastically pointed to two articles in the CNN world (one from CNN itself, and one on CNN's Sports Illustrated site) addressing the celebrity impact of the Asian tsunamis. (To be fair, both articles were written by the AP, just published on the CNN sites.) In all seriousness, though, what do these articles say about American news agencies? What do they say about American culture? The tsunamis hit on Saturday evening (US time), and the CNN article on the impact on celebrity vacations was published on the site shortly after midnight Wednesday (US Time), roughly 2.5 days later. That timing suggests that some editor at AP tasked one or more writers almost immediately to the celebrity angle of the tragedy.

South Asia is facing a humanitarian catastrophe, with nearly 80,000 already presumed dead and a death toll that could climb over 100,000. The survivors face disease, famine, and dehydration, which could claim as many lives as the water did. In planning how to cover this, a respected news agency like the AP decides the celebrity angle is one of the first things to cover? How did that meeting go? "100 thousand dead. OK. Anyone famous? Get on that, now! Maybe some movie star got nailed, or a model. What, we got a swimsuit model? Get that out, quick! No, take your time on that whole aid thing. We got a swimsuit model to talk about! Priorities, people!" And another respected news organization, CNN, decides these stories are worth headlines on their web sites, right up there with the aid and relief efforts.

Are we so obsessed with celebrity that coverage of how some famous people's vacations were disrupted is as newsworthy as the deaths of 100,000 people?

Tsunamis Shatter Celebrity Holiday

With all the horrific news out of Asia from the tsunamis, CNN gratefully informs us

A German statesman, a Czech super model and a Swedish Olympic ski champion were among the vacationers whose search for peace and sun in tropical southern Asia was shattered by the tsunamis that spared neither rich nor poor.

And SI devotes a whole article on the survival of Petra Nemcova (along with a picture of her swimsuit issue cover, with the headline "Too Much Fun"). 80,000 may have died, but at least the SI swimsuit model is OK. Whew! Think how tragic this whole affair could have been! It's so sad their peaceful vacations were ruined in such a callous manner.

(Links from Kantor.com)

Resting Starters

In the Week 16 games, several NFL teams rested their key starters in anticipation of the playoffs. In particular, the Eagles and Falcons did, costing themselves games. In general, I think it is a mistake to bench the starters this early. The common argument is that the team does not want to risk injury to key players in a meaningless game. The Eagles and Falcons had already secured their playoff berth and seed, so nothing was to be gained from the Week 16 games. But both teams have first round byes, so neither will play a meaningful game until the middle of January. Resting the starters for Week 16 means three weeks of relative inactivity for the key players, a lengthy layoff which risks rest turning to rust.

Furthermore, both the Eagles and the Falcons face challenges. The Eagles lost star wide receiver Terrell Owens in Week 15 to a broken leg. This forces Philadelphia to work with a radically changed offense. Each receiver now moves up one position in the pecking order, with Todd Pinkston becoming the #1 receiver. Pinkston has roughly half the yardage Owens put up, and only one touchdown catch (compared to 14 for Owens) all season. The Eagle offense needs a few weeks to get the receivers comfortable in their new roles, and to get McNabb comfortable with those receivers in their new roles. The chemistry of the passing game has been totally disrupted by the loss of Owens. By resting the starters against the Rams, and presumably next week against the Bengals, the new-look Eagle offense will get its first real run-through in the divisional round of the playoffs, possibly against the Panthers, one of the hottest teams in the NFC. The middle round of the playoffs is not the time to be feeling out the receiving corps to identify a new top target, to be experimenting with a new offense.

For the Falcons, it's not like Vick has mastered the West Coast offense. In fact, he needs all the practice and experience he can get executing that offense.

If either team struggles in the playoffs and sees an early exit, look at the decision to bench the starters with two games left as a primary culprit. Certainly, one does not want to risk injuring key players in meaningless games. But at the same time, one has to position the team for their best opportunities in the playoffs, and that means more than just seeding.

Playoff Picture, Revisited

Well, that didn't take long. A few days after posting my playoff predictions, everything gets screwed up. True to form, the Packers go opposite my prediction and beat the Vikings to claim the NFC North, the Jaguars lose to fall behind Denver and Buffalo for the sixth seed in the AFC. But everything else is looking good, so I wasn't too far off.

Kerry Can't Catch a Break

John Kerry just can't get a break. At least John F. Kerry, Senator from Massachusetts, can't. AP reports that New York's 31 electoral votes in the 2004 election have been cast for someone named John L. Kerry of Massachusetts. At least John Edwards got the votes for vice-president. The official documents can be viewed online at the National Archives. (Link courtesy of Political Wire.) The state is rushing to correct his embarrassing mistake.

NFL Week 16 Predictions

My streak of double digit correct picks continued last week, but barely, with 10 right. And that without help from New England. Ugh. As far as the Packers go, I've said many times they are my nemesis, losing when I pick them to win, winning when I pick them to lose.

I must say that I was impressed with Eli Manning this past week. It's amazing what a quarterback can do when he doesn't have defensive linemen in his face every play. Poor offensive line play was Kurt Warner's undoing, and it carried over to Eli's stint as starting quarterback. However, that line played well against Pittsburgh, and Eli had quite a game. The next decade is starting to look quite exciting with so many young quarterbacks--Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Chad Pennington, Tom Brady, Byron Leftwich, maybe Drew Brees--plus some guys hitting their primes--Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb.

I could comment on the shocking Dolphin upset of the Patriots and the injury to Terrell Owens, but I already have elsewhere, and I don't want to repeat myself. I could comment, but I don't want to repeat myself.

Onto this week.

Packers @ Vikings
The winner of this game will win the NFC North and likely claim the third seed in the playoffs. The Packers are already in the playoffs, regardless of the outcome of this game. Green Bay has been a streaky team this year. Four straight losses followed by six straight wins. They are 1-2 in the last three games, but have not looked good at all in any of them. To be fair, the two losses were against Philadelphia and Jacksonville, both likely playoff teams. The Packer offense did not play as poorly as their stats would indicate against the Jaguars. Jacksonville just out muscled them, especially on that interception in the end zone where Driver saw the touchdown ripped right out of his hands. The Vikings have not looked great either, with two losses in the last three weeks and the lone victory being by one point over Detroit, thanks to a bad snap on the extra point. Were it not for some dropped passes, the Lions would probably have won that game. The two teams are clones of each other in many ways: neither can play defense, both have strong and deep running games, both have excellent receivers and a strong quarterback. Minneapolis has not been friendly to Brett Favre over the years. He has only one a few times there. And Ferguson, one of those top receivers, will obviously be out. With a division title on the line, you have to expect both teams to go all out. But Favre's history in the dome will give the Vikings the win and the division. Prediction: Vikings.

Raiders @ Chiefs
This should be a great shootout game. Both teams are good on offense and inept on defense. The Chiefs, though, are much better at scoring. Prediction: Chiefs.

Broncos @ Titans
Denver is reeling, having lost three of four. Their lone victory in the last month came against Miami, and they barely won that one. The boo-birds have been out in force for Jake Plummer, and he's taken to flipping the bird back to the fans. The Titans have been even worse, enduring a four game losing streak. The Titan offense has done more than enough to win, ranking 8th in the league. Billy Volek has thrown for 17 touchdowns in relief of Steve McNair. But their defense, once the core of the team, has been atrocious. Only two teams--the 29ers and the Raiders--have given up more points. Denver should have the offensive power to outgun Volek. Prediction: Broncos.

Giants @ Bengals
Another matchup of exciting, young quarterbacks. The Bengals have a more developed passing game and defense. Prediction: Bengals.

Bears @ Lions
Despite their record, Detroit is not that bad of a team. They could have beaten the Vikings last week, but made some costly errors. They did a good job stopping the Viking rush and pressuring Culpepper. Their weakness defensively was the secondary. The Bears are built on the running game, so they don't measure up well against the Lion defense. Prediction: Lions.

Chargers @ Colts
This should be the game of the weekend, and it will decide who goes third and who goes fourth in the AFC playoff rankings. Both teams feature explosive, high scoring offenses. The Chargers have the better defense. That suggests a Charger victory. But this is the biggest game many of these Chargers have played in their professional careers, whereas it's just another Sunday for the Colts. That means nerves and jittery players on the visiting sideline. The Colt defense is better than some might think. They have faced their fair share of high octane offenses (their division alone has Houston and Tennessee) and they've won most of those matchups. Prediction: Colts.

Texans @ Jaguars
Jacksonville is looking pretty impressive right now. What impressed me about the game with the Packers was their physical play on defense. (Darius was way too physical on that one play, but I think the league handled it correctly by levying a heavy fine and admonishment, but no suspension.) Leftwich took a beating from the Packer defense, but kept coming back. He's going to be a good one. Houston just can't seem to put it together. Prediction: Jaguars.

Falcons @ Saints
The Saints are on a two game winning streak and are tied with Carolina at 6-8, so they are realistically in contention for a wild card spot. The last time they faced the Falcons, the Saints got to within a field goal. The Falcons have little left to play for, having already secured the second seed in the playoffs. This matchup is ripe for an upset, but it's too early for teams to start taking games off, so one expects the Falcons to play hard and live up to their ranking. Prediction: Falcons.

Ravens @ Steelers
Pittsburgh has only lost one game this season, to Baltimore. While the Steelers are playing like one of the best teams in the league, Baltimore is struggling for a wildcard spot. The Ravens have dropped three of their last four games. While their offense has scored points, it's the defense that is costing the team games. They won't catch a break this week. With the win, the Steelers will clinch the top seed in the AFC playoffs. Prediction: Steelers.

Patriots @ Jets
Well, the Patriots have really fouled things up for themselves. That's a strange thing to write about a team sitting at 12-2 with a solid grip on the second seed in the playoffs. But with the upset loss last week, the Patriots all but lost a shot at top seed. What is shocking is not that they lost, but how they lost. Bad decision making, stupid penalties and plays. Now, one must avoid reading too much into any single game, no matter how out of character that game was. The Patriots are still one of the best teams in the NFL. The fact is, they rarely win in Miami. Last year's victory was definitely the exception to the historical rule. The proof that one game does not define a team is the Jets, who laid an egg against Pittsburgh in their only loss in the last five games. Granted, that was against the top ranked team in the conference rather than the bottom ranked team. But the point is still made. The Jets have fairly solid grip on the fifth seed in the playoffs, but have not done well when faced with the better teams in the AFC. New England will be looking to wipe the smirks off every commentator's face this weekend. They will take out their frustration and embarrassment on the Jets. Prediction: Patriots.

Bills @ 29ers
Yes, the 29ers have been born after another futile Sunday campaign against a team not based in Arizona. Buffalo, on the other hand, has suddenly become a dominant team. They have gone 7-1 since a 1-5 start and are back in the hunt for the playoffs. In those seven wins, their worst scoring production was 22 points, against the Jets. A key component of their resurrection has been running back Willis McGahee, who suffered a knee injury in last week's win over the Bengals. With Travis Henry out as well, the Bills will go with rookie Shaud Williams. This spells trouble for Buffalo. Wait, they are facing the 29ers. Whew. That was a close one. Prediction: Bills.

Panthers @ Bucs
Both teams are still in the playoff hunt, though Carolina is in a better position. After getting a spark from Brian Griese, the Bucs have cooled again, losing three of their last four games. The Panthers lost last week, but barely. They still have to be considered one of the more dangerous teams in the NFC. Even though they lost, they kept control of the 6th seed in the NFC because everybody else lost too. Prediction: Panthers.

Redskins @ Dallas
Washington's offense has come alive the last couple of weeks with Patrick Ramsey at the helm. If they had had him all season, who knows. Maybe they would be contending for a playoff spot. OK, this is the NFC, so they are contending for a wildcard spot. But that's a technicality. Still, with an improved offense and top-notch defense, the 'Skins should have no problem in this one. Prediction: Redskins.

Cardinals @ Seahawks
As bizarre as it sounds, Arizona still has a shot at the division title. They have to win out to get to 7-9 and have Seattle and St. Louis both lose out, but it is a possible scenario. Given that no one seems to want this title, you can't ignore the possibility. Now that McCown is back on the field for Arizona, their offense has come alive, scoring 59 points the last two weeks. The Seahawks, recognizing their position as division leader and being in danger of winning the title, have lost three of four and are doing everything they can to avoid the playoffs. Despite their best efforts, a win this week will secure a playoff spot, and a win coupled with a Ram loss to the Eagles will secure the division. The Cardinals won their last meeting, but are terrible on the road (1-6 so far this year). I would really like to pick Arizona, but their road record makes that unlikely. Prediction: Seahawks.

Browns @ Dolphins
Miami and Cleveland share the worst record in the AFC, 3-11. But Miami has to be feeling very good about itself. Not only did they shock the Patriots last week, they've won two of their last four, and in the two losses, they nearly beat Denver, and played well against Buffalo. The Browns just stink up the place. From week 9, the Browns have only broken 17 points in a game once. (Admittedly, that was in the highest scoring game since the AFL-NFL merger.) They have been outscored 100-22 in the last three games. I think this will be the first time all year I'll go with Miami to win. Prediction: Miami.

Eagles @ Rams
Like Seattle, St. Louis has realized they are in danger of winning the NFC West again and have been doing everything in their power to avoid the title. They've lost four of their last five (even they couldn't avoid the inevitable win over San Francisco) and six of eight. For the Eagles, this is the first test without Terrell Owens. The Eagles will be fine, until the Super Bowl, without Owens. Prediction: Eagles.

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 138-86

Playoff Picture

Two big events this past weekend make the AFC picture suddenly much clearer and the NFC picture somewhat murkier. By losing to the Dolphins, the New England Patriots fall one game back of Pittsburgh for the top seed in the AFC. Because the Steelers already have the tiebreak advantage over the Patriots, Pittsburgh need only win one of the next two games to clinch the top spot. So, it suddenly appears fairly clear that the road to Jacksonville runs through Heinz field again. The week 16 game between the Colts and Chargers will decide each team's positioning for the third and fourth seeds. The Jets need just one more win to claim the fifth seed. So the only remaining drama now is the battle for sixth between reeling Denver, surging Buffalo, and the steady Ravens and Jaguars.

In the NFC, all season the playoff picture has been the Eagles and the battle for the right to lose to the Eagles in the NFC title game. With Terrell Owens out, the picture might be expected to change somewhat. The Eagles are back to being the team they were before T.O., i.e. the one that lost the last three NFC title games. The difference between those years and this one is that there was always a viable second team in the NFC. There really isn't this year. Atlanta is the clear second banana, but they just aren't in the same class as Philadelphia. There's really no one else. The week 16 game between Minnesota and Green Bay will decide the NFC North title, but who really cares. Someone has to win the NFC West. It's a rule. (Believe it or not, if the Cardinals win out and the Rams and Seahawks lose out, Arizona will win the division with a 7-9 record. But it's more likely to be Seattle at 8-8.) But again, who really cares. In the wildcards, whoever loses between Green Bay and Minnesota will likely claim the 5th seed. The drama is again the battle for sixth between Carolina, New Orleans, and St. Louis. Carolina and New Orleans will face off in week 17, and that game could decide it.

So, how will the playoffs break down?

AFC

1. Pittsburgh
2. New England
3. Indianapolis
4. San Diego
5. New York Jets
6. Jacksonville

The Jags have the easiest closeout schedule. They should win both games. Jacksonville has beaten Denver and Baltimore, so they get the tie-breaker advantage. Baltimore and Buffalo both have to face Pittsburgh, though Buffalo will likely face a bunch of second stringers. If Buffalo wins out, they would still fall behind Jacksonville because of conference record. If the Jaguars drop a game, the sixth spot would be wide open and Buffalo is the likely winner.

In the wild-card round, Indy will handily beat Jacksonville. The Charger-Jet game would be quite interesting. I will go with the Chargers to keep the Cinderella story alive. The divisional round would then be a rematch of the 1994 AFC title game (San Diego at Pittsburgh) and the 2003 AFC title game (Indianapolis at New England). The Steelers will get long-awaited revenge and the Patriots will continue on, setting up a rematch of the 2001 AFC title game (New England at Pittsburgh). (To keep the rematch theme alive, a Colt victory over New England, quite possible given my rationale below for a Steeler/Patriot game, would setup a rematch of the 1995 AFC title game between the Colts and Steelers.) In my mid-season report, I predicted this game going to New England. But the Patriot secondary is beat up. Ty Law is still out and Tyrone Poole is on IR. That's what used to be the starting corners for New England. Law should be back for the playoffs, but coming off a broken foot probably won't be at full speed. The Pats have gotten by with wide receiver Troy Brown filling in in the secondary, but that won't be good enough for an AFC title game. The Steelers have too many good receivers, and Ben Roethlisberger knows how to get them the ball. Plus they have a crushing running attack. So, I'll revise my prediction and go with the Steelers to win the AFC.

NFC

1. Philadelphia
2. Atlanta
3. Minnesota
4. Seattle
5. Green Bay
   
6. Carolina

Of the teams fighting for the sixth spot, the Panthers are the best. The Vikings will claim the division lead by winning in week 16.

In the wild-card round, Carolina will rout Minnesota and Green Bay will surprise Seattle. The game of the playoffs, then, will be Philadelphia-Carolina in a rematch of the 2003 NFC title game. Carolina is, perhaps, the one team that can challenge a T.O.-less Philadelphia, but all those injuries will finally catch up to the Panthers and the Eagles will win. Meanwhile, Green Bay will face Atlanta in a rematch of an infamous 2002 playoff game (the only Packer playoff loss in Lambeau, ever), and will be denied vengeance by the legs of Michael Vick. In the NFC title game, the stout Eagle defense (they have given up fewer points than anyone else in the NFC) will stifle Vick, the only Falcon weapon. So the Eagles win the NFC, setting up an all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl.

Super Bowl
Without T.O., or even with T.O. making his first appearance since breaking his leg, the Eagles just won't have enough offense to challenge Pittsburgh. The Eagle defense is good, but not that good. The Steelers will finally get that elusive one for the thumb.

"Mad" Mike Martz

Regarding the quality of quarterback play in the Rams' loss to Arizona on Sunday, head coach Mike Martz said,

It's tragic for this football team, for that position to hold this whole football team hostage, but that's where we are.

Sure Mike. The problem obviously wasn't a defense that gave up almost 300 yards passing and four total touchdowns (two passing, two rushing) to a third year quarterback who was benched just two weeks ago. The defense has only given up 25.4 points per game, 25th in the league, so that can't be the problem. Surely the problem isn't an offensive line that gave up two sacks in the first quarter alone against the Cardinals, and six sacks the two weeks prior, including the one that took Bulger out to begin with. The offensive line has given up 45 sacks on the year, fourth highest in the NFL, for a total of 329 yards lost, second highest in the league, so that cannot be the problem. The running game is putting up 97.7 yards per game, 28th in the league, so that cannot be the problem. It's the quarterback position that's holding the team hostage. I see. I see why they call him "Mad" Mike, that is.

NFL Week 15 Predictions

I've gotten on quite a roll, with double digit correct picks each week for a while now. Cool. Let's keep it up.

Onto this week.

Steelers @ Giants
Eli Manning, meet the dirt. Meet the dirt again. And again. And again. And again. Yeah, this is useful experience for a top draft pick. Tom Coughlin is studying the Bengal manual for quarterback development, circa 1990's. As a fellow rookie quarterback, maybe Roethlisberger can persuade Dick LeBeau, who helped write that Bengal manual, to show some mercy on poor Eli and cut back on the blitzes. But I doubt it. Prediction: Steelers.

Redskins @ 39ers
(San Francisco won last week, so they get to keep their single demotion for one more week.) The eight Lombardi trophies these two franchises have won between them will be faint memories as two of the worst teams in the NFL square off for not much of anything. The 'Skins have a far superior defense and running game, so they are just not as terrible as the 39ers. Prediction: Redskins.

Panthers @ Falcons
After Carolina's 1-7 start, who would have thought this game would be meaningful? But the Panthers are very much in the playoff race at 6-7, and looking like one of the best teams in the NFC, whatever that means. Atlanta has expertly exploited a soft schedule to win a division title a virtual lock on the 2nd seed in the NFC playoffs. But they have struggled against their own division of late. They barely beat a terrible Saint team by 3 points, on a very late touchdown pass to Alge Crumpler three weeks ago, and followed up with a scoreless performance against the Bucs. Heck, they only beat the Giants by four points in Eli Manning's first start, and are the only defense that has allowed Manning to look respectable and to score throw a touchdown pass. (The Giants have been blown out in every other game Manning has started.) I'm getting the impression I'm not so impressed with the Falcons. As I said last week, one really has to admire the Panthers and what they've done. Could this year's NFC title game be a rematch of last year's? The Panthers control their own destiny. If they win out they are in the playoffs, and then watch out. Carolina has never beaten a healthy Vick-led Falcon team. But the Panthers have never been as good as they are now. Prediction: Panthers.

Texans @ Bears
Houston will have problems with wind and cold of Chicago. Prediction: Bears.

Bills @ Bengals
Another of those matchups that no one would have thought would be meaningful. Both teams have gotten very hot and are both still in contention for a playoff spot. Buffalo is playing like the team I thought they would be before the season. ("Buffalo has a considerable amount of talent on both offense and defense, enough to be one of the top teams in the conference. Last year's misery leaves a big question mark over the team, but they easily have more talent than New England and should make a strong run at the title.") The Bills have by far the better defense, and that will be the difference in the game. Prediction: Bills.

Vikings @ Lions
As long as Randy Moss is a receiver and Daunte Culpepper is the quarterback, the Vikings easily have the better offense. But that's true in most games Minnesota plays, and they are barely above .500 right now. They were much better than Chicago, and should have been better than Seattle. But the Vikings lost both games. The last time the Vikings played the Lions, they had to have a late comeback to win by a field goal. That win required a key defensive play by Antoine Winfield, the one quality player on the unit, intercepting Joey Harrington with about a minute to go in the game. But Winfield will likely not play. Still one has to go with the better team, even if they often don't play like it. Prediction: Vikings.

Chargers @ Browns
The Chargers can lock up the division title with a win against the hopeless Browns who are coming off last week's whopping 17 yards of total offense in a game. What's Robiskie's plea this week? Let's get 25 yards? Hey, it would be an improvement. Prediction: Chargers.

Seahawks @ Jets
The Jets have pretty much locked up the top wildcard spot in the AFC, but they have not done well against winning teams. The Seahawks have their own history of unreliability. With injuries up front on defense, the 'Hawks will have a hard time stopping Curtis Martin. And the running game will open up the rest of the offense for Chad Pennington. Prediction: Jets.

Cowboys @ Eagles
A rematch of the towel game. Nicolette Sheridan won't be jumping into anyone's arms this week, at least not at the stadium. The Eagles are the lone quality team in the NFC, and Dallas is falling apart. This one shouldn't be close. Prediction: Eagles.

Broncos @ Chiefs
Denver is on the brink of losing their season, and the Chiefs are playing more like they were expected to play all season. Their depth at running back, taking a page out of the Bronco manual, has proven beneficial as Larry Johnson takes over for Priest Holmes. Still the Broncos have their own set of weapons. They just don't use them consistently. Playing at Arrowhead always gives an advantage to the home team. This one is hard to pick. Jake Plummer is so inconsistent that the advantage has to swing KC's way, but KC's defense is so bad the advantage meter swings right back. The Chiefs have been playing well of late (two straight wins after a three point loss; the Broncos have two losses and a three point win--against Miami no less--in the last three weeks), so I'll pick them. Prediction: Chiefs.

Rams @ Cardinals
The Cards were actually competitive last week, with formerly benched QB Josh McCown throwing for over 300 yards in a big comeback, admittedly against the pathetic 39ers, that came up just short in overtime, staving off the debut of the 29ers for another week. Sure, I can see why Dennis Green benched McCown a few weeks ago. Right. The Rams are 2-5 in their last seven games, the two wins coming over Seattle, who they just seem to know how to beat, and San Francisco. It must be said their last three losses have been to Buffalo, Green Bay, and Carolina, all of whom are playing great football right now. With Chris Chandler starting at quarterback, against an opportunistic Cardinal defense, the Rams' losing ways will continue. Prediction: Cardinals.

Saints @ Bucs
The Bucs have been trying to play well lately, and have flirted with the outside of playoff contention. With Griese's development, things are looking good for them next year. The Saints are sleepwalking through another season. Prediction: Bucs.

Jaguars @ Packers
The Packers will need to get off to a better start this week against the Jaguars. But the Jaguars have a tendency to kick field goals rather than extra points after touchdowns. The Packers will run their normal Ahman Green-led offense and come away with another win. Prediction: Packers.

Titans @ Raiders
This rematch of the 2002 AFC title game finds both teams done for the season and onto backup quarterbacks. Volek looked great last week, but Kerry Collins has had his moments too. This game will come down to the running game, and the Titans are much better there, especially against the terrible run defense of the Raiders. Prediction: Titans.

Ravens @ Colts
A classic matchup of offense against defense. Everybody knows about the Colt offense this season. Peyton Manning is just two touchdown passes away from Marino's twenty year old record of 48 in a season. The Ravens are surprising many with a much more effective passing game the last few weeks. But what no one seems to be talking about is a Raven defense that is suddenly giving up points. 24 to the Patriots, 27 to the Bengals. Even the Giants managed to put up 14. While Boller is improving for the Ravens, he will not be able to keep up with the Colts, especially if the Raven defense can't slow them down like they used to. Prediction: Colts.

Patriots @ Dolphins
Hmm, the best team in the AFC (or maybe second best) against the worst team in the AFC. Who to pick? Prediction: Patriots.

Last Week: 13-3
Season: 128-80.

GOP Lock in the South

The LA Times has published a study of the Republican gains in southern states in the 2004 election, and concludes the party has a stranglehold on that region of the country. Summing up the Republican position in the South, The Times says

After Bush helped the GOP win six open Southern Senate seats last month, Republicans now hold 22 of the 26 Senate seats in the 13 states.

That is the most either party has controlled in the region since Democrats also won 22 in 1964 —ironically, the election in which the white backlash against the Civil Rights Act allowed the GOP to make its first inroads into the South.

Forty years later, under a Southern Republican president, the South has become an electoral fortress for the GOP. Outside the South, Democrats hold more House and Senate seats and won many more electoral college votes than the GOP last month. But the GOP's advantage in the region has been large enough to overcome those deficits and create Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress and the electoral college.

And the magnitude of November's Republican sweep last month suggests the GOP advantage across the region is expanding.

Comparing Kerry's performance in white-majority counties in those states with that of Clinton in 1996,

In Southern counties without a substantial number of African American or Latino voters, Bush virtually obliterated Kerry. Across the 11 states of the old Confederacy, plus Kentucky and Oklahoma, whites constitute a majority of the population in 1,154 counties. Kerry won 90 of them.

By contrast, Bill Clinton won 510 white-majority counties in the South eight years ago.

And for Kerry's overall performance,

Bush's overwhelming performance left Sen. John F. Kerry clinging to a few scattered islands of support in a region that until the 1960s provided the foundation of the Democratic coalition in presidential politics. Kerry won fewer Southern counties than any Democratic nominee since the Depression except Walter F. Mondale in 1984 and George S. McGovern in 1972, according to data assembled by The Times and Polidata, a firm that specializes in political statistics.

These results confirm what I have commented on previously, namely that Bush strengthened his position across the board, both where he won in 2000 and where he lost in 2000, and the Republican party in now in a position of unassailable power that it has not enjoyed since the 1920's.

Football Video Games in the Future

If you play football video games, this announcement will impact your gaming in the not too distant future:

Video game publisher Electronic Arts on Monday said it had signed an exclusive agreement with the National Football League and the marketing arm of its players' union, giving EA the sole rights to put NFL players, stadiums and teams in its games.

The exclusive license struck a blow for EA in its ongoing battle with the joint venture of Sega Sammy Holdings and Take-Two Interactive Software.

Take-Two is the maker of the ESPN-branded games, like this years NFL 2K5 featuring Terrell Owens on the box. While EA's Madden NFL series has long been the market leader, the ESPN game this year made significant market gains by slashing prices to less than half of what Madden cost. This deal means that future versions of the ESPN game, as well as any other competing product still in production, will not be able to use real player names and faces, nor will they be able to use team names and logos, which will effectively crush those products.

Freedom of Speech

Why is it that artists think freedom of speech only goes one way? In New York, a private art show including a painting depicting President Bush using monkeys was shut down by the show managers. The artist behind the painting was disturbed, calling the decision to shut the show down "a blatant act of censorship", and said, "This is much deeper than art. This is fundamental American rights, freedom of speech." In 2003, the singer of the country music group Dixie Chicks made a negative comment about Bush in a concert in London and then had to face an angry response from country music fans who liked the president, which was portrayed as an assault on the singer's freedom of speech.

Freedom of speech goes both ways. An artist has the right to say what he or she wants. But consumers have the same right to express their displeasure or disagreement back to the artist. The artists don't seem to understand this. In their mind, when the artist makes his painting, that is free speech. When a gallery manager decides not to show the painting, that's censorship. When the singer expresses negative views of the president, that's free speech. When her fans criticize the band for making such comments, that's censorship.

First of all, censorship is an act of government. If the government passed a law saying singers could not express critical opinions of the president or create paintings mocking the president, that would be censorship. That has obviously not happened. No one has denied anyone's freedom of speech here. But, I as a consumer have an equal right to free speech, and if I want to express my disagreement by throwing away Dixie Chicks CDs or shutting down an art show (if I were the manager), that is my right. Were I an art show manager, I am not obligated to show some piece of art. Were I a fan of the Dixie Chicks, I am not obligated to support their singer's views.

Freedom of speech does not mean freedom to express one's views without consequence or response from the listener.

Moss, the Quarterback

A lot of people are going to question the Viking play call of an option to wide receiver Randy Moss near the two minute warning of the Viking-Seahawk game on Sunday. Don Banks writes

What on earth were Mike Tice, Scott Linehan and the Minnesota Vikings thinking? With the game — and quite possibly their season — on the line at home against Seattle, the Vikings ran a reverse/option pass to receiver Randy Moss, who proceeded to get picked off by Seahawks super rookie Michael Boulware in the end zone. It was first-and-10 from the Seattle 20, with the Vikings trailing 27-23 and 2:09 remaining when Minnesota got at least too cute by half.

Let me get this straight: You have a Pro Bowl quarterback with 31 touchdown passes already to his credit in Daunte Culpepper, and you opt to let Moss — wearing a glove, no less — throw maybe the biggest pass of the season? I wouldn't want to have been in Vikings owner Red McCombs' box when Moss tried to make like Peyton Manning. McCombs has fired NBA coaches for less than that.

As a Packer fan, I think it was an absolutely brilliant call! Seriously though, it was the kind of call where, if it works, the coach is a genius, if it blows up, he's a moron. The Steelers made a similar call against the Jets (Bettis throwing a touchdown pass), and no one is calling Cowher a fool.

The call wasn't really that bad (too cute, perhaps, but not really bad). It was the execution that was bad. As Don Seeholzer of the Pioneer Press says, "What no one said — even if they were thinking it — was that Moss shouldn't have thrown the pass, no matter what the call was." To me, as an armchair quarterback, the decision making on the field should be pretty simple, even for a non-quarterback. The faker looks to see if the defense has bitten on the fake. If it has, throw the ball to the intended receiver. If it has not, run or throw the ball away. In the Steeler version of events, the secondary players broke off their coverage of the receivers and started to converge on Bettis, who made the right decision and threw the touchdown. In the Viking version, the secondary did not break off, leaving Robinson in double coverage. Moss had no business throwing that ball. If he ran the ball or threw it away, the Vikings would have still had the opportunity for Culpepper to throw the touchdown. It was only first down, and they were in the red zone.

Coach Mike Tice has been on the hot seat in Minnesota all season, and the Vikings blowing the game and perhaps the season will not help his cause. But in fairness, one has to remember how far Tice has brought this team. When he took over, the team was in disarray, a losing team with players bickering amongst themselves on the sidelines. Randy Moss was a prima donna, only playing when he felt like it. Daunte Culpepper was a young quarterback being constantly berated by Moss and Cris Carter among others. The team was falling apart. Today, Culpepper is a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback. Were it not for Peyton Manning, Daunte's season would be one of the big stories of the year. Moss is a committed leader on the team. The Vikings were one (beautiful) play away from winning the division last year, and are still very much alive in the division race this year. The Vikings have made some shrewd personnel moves, such as drafting Nate Burleson, who no one else thought much of but is blossoming for Minnesota. With one or two more playmakers on defense (Antoine Winfield cannot do it all), they could be a favored team.

It's true that Tice has not been able to push his team over the top to join the elite of the NFC (to the extent that the NFC has an elite class). But he has turned a losing, imploding team into a playoff contending, offensive powerhouse. He should be given credit for that, and given the chance to finish what he started.

Untold Greatness

The hype machine surrounding Michael Vick is reaching completely irrational proportions. Steve Corkran describes Vick as "the guiding force behind his team's 9-3 record this season and the architect of some of the most mind-boggling displays of talent the game has ever seen." In recounting the story of the effective Tomlinson-for-Vick draft day trade between the Chargers and the Falcons, Corkran writes of the "prospect of untold greatness" Atlanta saw in Vick. He describes Vick as "one of the most-hyped players ever and someone billed as talented enough to change the quarterback position" and closes by musing on Vick going into the Hall of Fame.

Oh brother. Vick is in his fourth season in the NFL. Here is how Vick's performance compares with some other randomly selected quarterbacks in their fourth year:

Player Games Rating TDs INTs Yards/Game Vick 12 78.5 11 10 164.9 P. Manning 16 84.1 26 23 258.2 Favre 16 90.7 33 14 242.6 Culpepper 16 75.3 18 23 240.8 McNabb 10 86.0 17 6 228.9 Brady 16 85.9 23 12 226.3 Bledsoe 16 83.7 27 15 255.4 A. Brooks 16 88.8 24 8 221.6

I've tried to choose a range of QBs, from the greats (Manning, Favre) to the average (Brooks). This table shows that, at a comparable stage of development, Vick is the only QB in the list with under 200 yards per game, has the fewest touchdowns and almost the lowest rating. Based on this comparison, Vick would hardly look like a player with "some of the most mind-boggling displays of talent the game has ever seen." Now, if I add rushing numbers to that list, certainly Vick will come out head and shoulders above the rest. If Vick is changing the quarterback position, as Corkran says, he's changing into the running back position, and that's already taken.

Now, am I saying Vick is a bad quarterback or will never amount to much? No. Who knows how he will develop. But, let's wait for him to develop into a quarterback putting up at least respectable numbers before bringing up the Hall of Fame. A future Hall of Famer should at least have better stats than Aaron Brooks and Tim Rattay.

Poor Planning

The quality of pre-war planning for the occupation of Iraq is back in the news. Commenting on the renewed charges of insufficient armor on vehicles deployed to Iraq, AP reports

Traveling in India, Rumsfeld said he expects the Army to do its best to resolve the problem. In Washington, Bush said the soldier's concerns "are being addressed and that is — we expect our troops to have the best possible equipment."

So, more than a year and a half into the occupation, the government is now looking into this problem, and the president expects "our troops to have the best possible equipment." Why didn't the president expect that when the occupation started? Why wasn't this one of the first things looked at when planning the Army deployment?

It's not like this is a new discovery. John Kerry was talking about this during the presidential campaign. At the first debate, Kerry said,

You don't send troops to war without the body armor that they need.

I've met kids in Ohio, parents in Wisconsin places, Iowa, where they're going out on the Internet to get the state-of-the-art body gear to send to their kids. Some of them got them for a birthday present.

I think that's wrong. Humvees -- 10,000 out of 12,000 Humvees that are over there aren't armored. And you go visit some of those kids in the hospitals today who were maimed because they don't have the armament.

The problem isn't just armor on vehicles, it's also armor on the soldiers' bodies. USA Today reported in March, 2004 that troops were buying their own body armor. Reports along these lines go back at least as far as December, 2003.

Now that the election is over, and the media have gotten hold of it again, the administration will look into improving the situation. Some of the companies producing the armor have offered in the past to increase production. One company is producing at only 50% capacity and could do a lot more, but the military was not interested. "You only have to go up the road to Walter Reed Army Hospital and speak to the men and women who have been wounded by homemade bombs to understand just how important vehicle armor is in the kind of combat we are facing," said Rep. Gene Taylor (D-Miss).

This is what happens when the administrations imagines the absolute best case scenario and plans for it, and for nothing else. If the Army was only going to be there for thirty days, working with throngs of jubilant Iraqis happy to have been conquered by American troops, then who would need armor?

NFL Week 14 Predictions

Ah well, 10-6 last week. In the NFC, that could be good enough for a second seed in the playoffs. We'll just skip past that whole thing about Green Bay upsetting Philly, OK? I said earlier in the season that the Packers were my nemesis in making picks since I was almost always getting them wrong.

Onto this week.

Raiders @ Falcons
One characteristic of really good teams is that they don't lose games they are supposed to win. Atlanta has the second best record in the NFC. OK, that's not exactly an impressive feat (see above), but it has to be worth something. But to not only lose, but go scoreless against a losing team? When everybody continues to rave about your quarterback? (Can everybody please agree to stop hyping Vick to the moon? His is, as a quarterback, incredibly average, at best. For the season, his quarterback rating is 78.5, he only averages 164.9 yards per game passing, and only has one more touchdown pass than interception. Brian Griese in 8 games has more touchdowns than Vick has in 12. Vick has only one more touchdown pass than Tim Rattay, who only played 9 games. Yes, he has more rushing yards than Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Duce Staley, and Jamal Lewis, and is his team's leading rusher. But, as I've pointed out many times, the man is a quarterback, not a running back.) Anyway, the Raider run defense has not improved this year, despite adding Ted Washington and Warren Sapp. Between Vick and Warrick Dunn, the Falcons will run, run, and run some more. Prediction: Falcons.

Giants @ Ravens
Will Eli ever get a break? Other than how to fall when getting hit time and time again and how to best use the trainers to ease the pains after a game, just what exactly does Coughlin think Manning is learning right now? I hope he's at least learned those things, because here comes Ray Lewis. Is that a gleam in Ray's eye? Lamb to the slaughter. Prediction: Ravens.

Browns @ Bills
Better late than never, Buffalo has been playing pretty well lately and finally look something like the team they should be with the talent they have. Cleveland? Well... It probably can't get much worse than last week's annihilation. The Browns can take comfort that they won't face the Patriots again for a few years. Prediction: Bills.

Saints @ Cowboys
A matchup between two underachieving teams, one that plays pretty hard each week before shooting themselves, and one who gets the shooting over with early. For Dallas, Julius Jones is looking like a very shrewd draft pick by Parcells, who was criticized often in the off-season for passing over other backs. For the worst defense in the NFL, the combination of Jones' running and Testaverde throwing to Keyshawn spells doom. Prediction: Cowboys.

Colts @ Texans
Will this be Peyton's week? Well, every week is Peyton's week, but this could be the one when he breaks Marino's record. He couldn't ask for a better "defense" to go against. Beyond the record, this is actually something of an important game for Indianapolis. After this, they face the Ravens, Chargers, and Broncos, all teams with good defenses and in the thick of the playoff hunt. This is the last week of a long stretch of playing against weak defenses or weak teams (KC, Minnesota, Houston, Chicago, Detroit, Tennessee), and the Colts have made the most of it. Manning has thrown 18 touchdowns in just the last four weeks. Peyton's opposite number, David Carr, has 12 touchdowns for the whole season! The Colts will finish off the soft stretch just as strong as they started it. Prediction: Colts.

Bears @ Jaguars
After a fast start, the Jags have cooled off dramatically and are now on the outer fringes of the playoff hunt. The Bears are hanging tough, with their fourth quarterback of the season, Dallas reject Chad Hutchinson. Jacksonville is the better team. Prediction: Jaguars.

Seahawks @ Vikings
Seattle is falling apart. They can't put anybody away, since that first game with the Rams. Teams have to play four quarters, not three or three and a half. Minnesota, while not as devastating as they were with a healthy Moss, are more consistent. They still suffer the unexplainable loss, like last week's perplexing defeat at the hands of the Bears, but they usually be counted on to be explosive on offense and humorous on defense. The Seahawks don't have the offense to keep up with Culpepper, and the receivers' love of dropping the ball will compensate for the ability-challenged Viking secondary. Prediction: Vikings.

Bengals @ Patriots
The Corey Dillon reunion game. Cincy, like Buffalo, is starting to look pretty good. Next year's AFC North looks to be an exciting division, even with Cleveland in the mix. But, while the Bengals are looking pretty good, the Patriots are looking downright dominant (again). They have not lost a game that Dillon has started, and he will hit the holes a little harder this week against the team he served for seven gut wrenching seasons. The Patriot defense will remind Carson Palmer that he is only in his first year. Prediction: Patriots.

Dolphins @ Broncos
Denver is becoming another of those teams like Forrest Gump's box of chocolates: you never know what you're gonna get. Having fallen two games back of San Diego, they need to win every game to have a shot at the division. They also need to win often to keep up in the wild-card race. Luckily for them, the AFC's worst team is in town. Prediction: Broncos.

Jets @ Steelers
New York is surging again with the return of Chad Pennington. Their underappreciated defense is coming together quite nicely. Curtis Martin is having his best season in years. Too bad they face the Steelers this week. Prediction: Steelers.

Lions @ Packers
Last week, I said the Eagle game would show what the Packers are made of. Well, I guess we did, and it's not a pretty sight. That defense is almost good (bad) enough to play for the Vikings. Oh my. Can anyone tackle? Has the secondary ever learned that covering people is a good thing? Detroit won't challenge the defense anywhere near as much as Philadelphia did, which is a good thing. Prediction: Packers.

39ers @ Cardinals
The QB shuffle in Arizona is bringing back to the guy who should have never left in the first place. Now that that pesky playoff contention thing is out of the way, Denny Green is bringing back the only Cardinal quarterback to bring victories this season. Well, actually the Cards are sitting at 4-8, so they are very much in the thick of the playoff race still. Actually, they are very much in the hunt for a division title (they are only two games back). In the NFC, it's pretty hard to be out of playoff contention, unless you play in San Francisco. With a loss this week, the 29ers will make their debut next week. Prediction: Cardinals.

Rams @ Panthers
This is the rematch of the other NFC divisional playoff game from 2003, you know, the one that wasn't 4th-and-26. That was the one where Mike Martz got cold feet and played conservative late in the game, settling for a tieing field goal rather than taking a shot or two at the endzone for the win. The Rams are the model NFC team. Win some, lose some, up, down, good, crap. The Panthers are surging, playing like the defending NFC champions they are, after an abysmal start. One has to really respect what they have managed to do. A month ago, Carolina was 1-7 and looking like the biggest Super Bowl bust since, well, last year's Raiders. Now they are 5-7, coming off four solid wins, having put up at least 32 points in three of their last four. And 5-7, of course, puts Carolina right in the middle in the wildcard race. John Fox has to be given a lot of credit for keeping that team together and playing hard, when other teams (like last year's Raiders and Giants) would have thrown in the towel a long time ago. Even if they don't make the playoffs, or even if they don't make it to 8-8, Fox has to be a frontrunner for coach of the year. Against the unpredictable Rams, who will start an aged backup quarterback, they will make it five straight. Prediction: Panthers.

Bucs @ Chargers
Tampa is another team making a strong run after a weak start. But San Diego is looking like they are one of the best teams in the league, up there with the Eagles, Colts, Steelers,and Patriots. They have run off six straight wins, and eight of nine. The one loss came to Atlanta, by one point after a fourth quarter Falcon comeback. Most of those wins have not been against good defenses, so it is tempting to pick an upset here. But San Diego is averaging 28.3 points per game (32.4 over the last five games), and Tampa has been up and down. Prediction: Chargers.

Eagles @ Redskins
So much for the Eagles having a letdown after winning the division. This week, though, they face a much better defense than what the Packers put up. The 'Skins will slow down the Eagle express, but without much in the way of offense (a team who this late in the season makes it a big goal to score 20 points in a game is not a team with a power offense) the Eagles will grind out a lower score win. Prediction: Eagles.

Chiefs @ Titans
The Titans are nearly as beat up as the Panthers, and lack Carolina's depth. Billy Volek had his moments last week, but it was not enough against the potent Colt offense. The Chiefs have the ability to be as powerful on offense as Indianapolis. Prediction: Chiefs.

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 115-77

Education Problems and Acceptance

UWM's Professor Martin Haberman has written a paper on the state of inner-city education, in which he charges the educational system with racism. In this essay, he charges

The reason that several hundred thousand of these central office functionaries in 120 districts can get away with, indeed be rewarded for, the unforgivable mass educational killing of children is that these are children of color and children in poverty. If the suburban and small town schools of Wisconsin had a graduation rate of 36% (the current graduation rate for African Americans in my city) there would not be an air of calm “professionalism” in the central offices, or at the school board, or in the streets outside the schools. The parents (and their lawyers) would be engaged in activities that would be closing down the system. The Governor would be calling out the National Guard to protect school property and convening a special session of the state legislature. The President as well as the Secretary of Education would be making personal visits and commitments promising immediate change. The universities, business associations, and community organizations would be holding forums and meetings. Churches would be holding all night vigils. The local foundations would be funding special studies and action task forces. The media would keep the story on page one until the system was changed. If the victims of such horrendous miseducation were white children in small towns and suburbs rather than urban minority children and children in poverty the dysfunctional bureaucracy would not survive one year let alone be allowed to grow even worse every year for over half a century.

I have elsewhere commented on the continuing use of race-based paradigms to address problems in our society. But let us consider the highlighted statement. Professor Hagerman says that, if suburban education produced such dismal graduation rates, there would be a mass popular protest against the district that would demand an overhaul. My question for the professor would be, why is there not such a protest in the inner-city he is talking about (Milwaukee, where I also live)? Isn't this a major problem? Suburban parents would not accept a 36% graduation rate, but inner city parents are. Any attempt to address the deficiencies of inner-city education must deal with this acceptance of inadequacy.

This is exactly what comedian Bill Cosby, who holds a doctorate in education, has been talking about, sometimes to great criticism.

This is about little children ... and people not giving them better choices. ... Talking. Talking. Parenting. Correctly parenting. That's what it's about. And you can't blame other things. You got to -- you got to straighten up your house. Straighten up your apartment. Straighten up your child.

and again

People marched and were hit in the face with rocks to get an education, and now we've got these knuckleheads walking around. ... The lower economic people are not holding up their end in this deal. These people are not parenting. ... Brown versus the Board of Education is no longer the white person's problem. We have got to take the neighborhood back. ... They are standing on the corner and they can't speak English.

CNN writes of the reception Cosby has received,

Some of his critics have attacked him for airing what they see as the black community's dirty laundry in public. Others said that Cosby should also be condemning establishment institutions that, in their view, helped create the situation.

But, if parents will not take the lead and demand better service from their local educational system, as Professor Hagerman says suburban parents would do, how can one condemn the services for being bad?

There is a general sense of acceptance in inner city communities of the way things are, from poor education and high dropout rates, to drugs, gangs, teen pregnancy, etc. The hip hop culture, so popular in that world, glamorizes gangs, drug dealing and prostitution, making incarceration and gunshot wounds badges of honor. (I'm not criticizing a genre of music, but rather a culture, created by marketing gurus to sell CDs.) For example, on the marketing of rapper Shyne's album "Godfather Buried Alive",

Def Jam's willingness to capitalize on [Jamal, Shyne's real name] Barrow's criminal background to promote his CD may seem crass, but it is the kind of stunt that is becoming more common as record companies strive to remain relevant to consumers. Increasingly, the music industry has sought to refashion itself as the prime purveyor of not just music, but culture and lifestyle. With the encouragement of music executives, such artists as Britney Spears and 50 Cent have teamed up with corporate advertisers to hawk shoes, soda and video games.

When it comes to rap stars, music industry executives know that they're selling menace as well as music. Criminality adds credibility, and in the case of Barrow, who is serving a 10-year prison sentence at the Clinton Correctional Facility in Dannemora, N.Y., for assault, it may have been more marketable than his talent.

"Buying into Shyne isn't like buying into the normal hip-hop artist," said Marcus Logan, a consultant who helped construct the marketing campaign for Barrow's new release. "With him, the music is almost secondary…. We were selling his story, his credibility."

If, in this culture, "criminality adds credibility," how can one expect that simply "condemning establishment institutions," as Cosby's critics desire, even hope to redress the problems? (Interestingly, the chorus of critics includes Russell Simmons, founder of Def Jam, who said "Judgment of the people in the situation is not helpful. How can you help them is the question.")

The reprehensible willingness of inner-city focused businesses like Def Jam to glamorize and exploit the very problems that oppress the people of the inner cities in order to make a buck must be considered a significant part of the problem. Life in the inner city will not improve, regardless of reforms in the government bureaucracy, until the people of the inner city commit to no longer accepting the status quo and begin to hold themselves to a higher standard. Education in the inner cities will not improve until inner city parents begin to act like the suburban parents in Professor Haberman's paper.

Race-based Paradigms

The Buck Stops Here blog points readers to an essay by Professor Martin Haberman of UWM talking about the state of education in urban school districts. In the essay, Professor Haberman makes repeated reference to race as part of the problems dealing with inner-city education. These evocations of race are usually completely unnecessary. For example, he says, "Low income people of color cannot find affordable housing in suburbs or the transportation and jobs needed to live in small towns." Now, why use the qualification "of color" in this sentence? Low income white people have the exact same problem, so the qualification is substantively meaningless. At issue is low income people, not "people of color." I don't want to comment on the substance of Haberman's essay, but rather its reflection of an interesting and important facet of how our culture views society. Since the 1960's, we have adopted a race-based view of the dynamics of our society. In other words, we view problems in racial terms. Though times have changed since the 1960's, this fundamental paradigm has not.

Why is this important? If we view our society's problems in racial terms, any proposed resolution will be race-based as well. If the problem is really not racial, then we pursue "solutions" which solve nothing and serve to perpetuate those problems. For example, Professor Haberman writes, "There is a continuing and growing shortage of school leaders of color who can function effectively in African American and Latino communities." If that is part of the problem, the obvious solution is, then, to hire more minority school teachers. But would this be an adequate solution? Where would quality black teachers go to teach? To the affluent suburbs, where pay and benefits would be higher, or to the inner cities, with lower pay and lower professional satisfaction? Generally, black teachers would follow the same path a comparable quality white teacher would, namely to the schools with the better pay. This is part of the problem in the education system, that the best teachers go the affluent schools, the worst teachers go to the inner city schools. Therefore, simply educating and hiring more black teachers would do little to solve the problems of inner-city education. There are many other problems, of course, but the point is that employing a racial paradigm to understanding the problem misdiagnoses the situation, resulting in a "solution" that do little to solve anything.

As a people, we have become accustomed to viewing the dynamics of our society in racial terms. When a cop shoots a fleeing suspect, newscasts make sure to note the race of the shooter and victim, especially if the cop was white and the victim not. It is immediately cast as a race incident, until proven otherwise. That the cop may have simply been doing his or her job is not immediately considered. The overrepresentation of blacks in prison and on death row is characterized by some as a race problem, when it could well be a function of economic class, i.e. a poor white defendant would get just as bad a defense from the public defenders' office as a poor black defendant.

Viewing society through the lens of race is an outdated relic of the 1950's and 1960's. At that time, racism at an institutional and societal level was very much an issue. But decades of civil rights reform have addressed that, to the point that today's charges of racism often focus on rather silly things like dress codes at bars. I am not suggesting racism is dead. There will always be racists. But, at an institutional level, i.e. the laws and institutions of the nation, racism has been expunged. People are no longer oppressed through the laws and practices of the land. By continuing to employ this paradigm, real issues and problems will be misunderstood, and attempt at solution of these issues will fail. To properly address issues, we must first view them properly.

Butch Davis' Fall

Peter King, in regard to Butch Davis' fall as head coach of the Cleveland Browns, notes

[Dwight, former GM] Clark's tenure, to be charitable, was an unmitigated disaster. Of the 61 combined picks in the 1999 expansion draft and the '99 and 2000 college drafts (those were double-draft picks years in rounds three through seven for Cleveland), only one, cornerback Daylon McCutcheon, is a full-time starter. So when Davis walked in from the University of Miami in 2001, he was basically taking over an expansion team -- without all the built-in advantages an expansion team has.

I want to say that again, just so you get the enormity of how pathetic the player selection was by this front office in 1999 and 2000: One player of the 61 picked in the first two years is a regular starter now. That is so alarmingly bad it's hard to fathom. Let's take away the 37 expansion draft picks. One of the 24 draft choices, picking first overall each year, is a regular starter in 2004.

and goes on to say

Davis deserves a chunk of the blame today, to be sure. But more goes to Policy, Clark and the first coaching staff. On Wednesday, the day after I talked to Davis, I got a call from someone in the Browns' organization, asking if I would like to see a personnel sheet entailing the team's roster movement from 2001 to 2004. Sure, I said. When the e-mail came, I knew why Davis wanted me to see this. (I assume it was he who directed it be sent to me.) The salient points:

• Of the 63 players on the roster in Davis' first years, 43 of them (68 percent) are out of football.
• Only two of 31 inherited offensive players -- Dennis Northcutt, Aaron Shea -- are still Browns.
• Not a single quarterback, offensive lineman or linebacker from the 2001 teams is still with Cleveland.

"When up and down the roster high picks don't make an expansion team long-term, you're going to have a problem," Davis said.

It is certainly tough to win when you don't have decent players.

NFL Week 13 Predictions

Another week, another coach bites the dust. I don't really understand the value of canning the head coach during the season. The only gain I can see is that the remainder of the season can be viewed as a tryout for the interim head coach. However, interim coaches are rarely taken as serious candidates for the permanent job, so it doesn't seem to gain much. Butch Davis was bad, certainly, and the Browns desperately needed to get rid of him. But why now? Why not in January? They aren't going to be able to interview any serious candidates until the post-season or after the Super Bowl. It just doesn't seem to have too much value. At least Terry Robiskie has some experience in this position, having taken over for Norv Turner in Washington a few years ago.

Anyway, unlike Cleveland, I had the joy of another successful week last week, going 12-4. Onto this week.

Bengals @ Ravens
Rumors of an improving Bengal defense are surely now thoroughly debunked. No one should give up 48 points to the Browns. But the Bengal offense has to be taken seriously. The Brown defense is not inept, and Palmer torched them. Of course Baltimore's defense is far superior to Cleveland's. I kind of feel an upset in the making here, but I will go with the favorite. I have to believe there will be a letdown on the Bengal side after such an explosive game, and the Raven offense should be able to get some production, even with Jamal Lewis out for yet another game. Prediction: Ravens.

Vikings @ Bears
Minnesota will continue to exploit a weak section of the schedule. Prediction: Vikings.

Patriots @ Browns
Cleveland's morale has to be in the pits. Score 48 points, and lose? Put up 400+ yards passing, and lose? That has to be devastating. Then they lose their head coach, which sounds like it has gone over well in the locker room actually, unlike Wannstedt's departure from Miami. Finally, as if that weren't enough, it appears Luke McCown will take his first NFL snap when he starts this week. And all this the week they face the defending Super Bowl champions, and who are playing like it. Prediction: Patriots.

Cardinals @ Lions
A few weeks ago, the Cardinals were right in the thick of the race for the NFC West division title, a title no one apparently wants to win. Flushed with such success, Dennis Green promptly benched his starting quarterback and just as promptly lost the next two games, with his offense putting up a staggering 13 points total (while the defense gave up 48). Both games were winnable (they played the last place Panthers and a beat up Jets), and two wins would have put them in a first place tie with Seattle. This week, Green is wisely benching the quarterback, Shaun King, who led those two disasters. Obviously, he's putting McCown, the guy who won the games that put them in contention and who had put up at least 24 points in four of his last six starts, back in right? Remember, no one wants to win this division, and Green is apparently no different. So rather than risk gaining ground on the Seahawks (whom McCown has already beaten), he will start rookie 7th round draft pick John Navarre, who has never taken a snap in the NFL. The Cards will also start undrafted rookie Larry Croom at running back. That makes for a, um, devastating offense (for Cardinal fans, that is). Prediction: Lions.

Titans @ Colts
Once a marquee matchup, the fading Titans will not be able to keep up with the Peyton express. Prediction: Colts.

Bills @ Dolphins
The Bills are starting to play a little more like I thought they would play all season. Moving the ball, scoring touchdowns, and playing strong defense will usually bring victory. (For most of the season, Buffalo played like they thought they had discovered a whole new way to win, only to find it didn't work. Points? We don't need no stinkin' points!) Miami, though coming off a big win in San Fran last week, protecting them from being the absolute worst team in the league, is still pretty bad. Prediction: Buffalo.

Panthers @ Saints
The Panthers are quietly starting to play well. They have won three straight games, and put up 20+ points in their last four (after only doing so once in the first seven). They have actually worked their way back to second place in the division. OK, it's the pathetic NFC South where everybody except Atlanta is 4-7, but second place is second place. In the NFC, 4-7 is good enough for playoff contention. They certainly appear assured of avoiding the title of biggest Super Bowl bust, leaving that in the capable hands of the 2003 Oakland Raiders. While Jim Haslett's halftime tirade lit a small flame under the Saints' collective butts, the phrase "too little, too late" comes to mind. Prediction: Panthers.

Texans @ Jets
With Pennington back at the controls, the Jets should have no problem moving the ball against a weak Houston defense. Prediction: Jets.

39ers @ Rams
After four losses in their last five games, a visit from the inept 39ers (is it time for another demotion to the 29ers?) is just what the Rams need. Prediction: Rams.

Falcons @ Bucs
This is a tough one. The Bucs have been playing well. But for some missed field goals last week, they would have won. But the Falcons have the second best record in the NFC, so you have to think they will prevail against a 4-7 team. Prediction: Falcons.

Chiefs @ Raiders
Two teams, who have combined to win 5 of the last 7 division titles, will fight for a little pride. Only one can succeed. Both possess good offenses and terrible defense. The Raiders are playing better, with Kerry Collins getting comfortable with his new team. The Chiefs are likely going to have neither Trent Green at quarterback nor Priest Holmes at running back. That spells doom. Prediction: Raiders.

Broncos @ Chargers
This game is a must win for Denver. With yet another lapse in play last week (and don't talk to me about the weather, it's Denver's home turf!), the Broncos have fallen a game back of San Diego in the division. A loss here would drop them two games back, with only four to play. With the congestion of teams contending for a wildcard spot, Denver really needs to win the division. On the other hand, with a win San Diego can all but lock up the division for themselves. San Diego is playing better and more consistent football than Denver is. Prediction: Chargers.

Packers @ Eagles
Rematch of the 4th-and-26 game. Green Bay is hot right now, having won six straight games. But none of the vanquished teams were of Philadelphia's caliber. This week, we will see what Green Bay is really made of. The Packers bring the better offense, but the Eagles have the better defense. The Packer secondary does not get much appreciation around the league, nor should they. But it must be noted they have held their last two high-flying offenses (Houston, St. Louis) to a combined 30 points. The Eagles have won 10 games, but have not played many quality opponents. Their defense is ranked 15th in the league, but that's playing against the Giants, Lions, Bears, Browns, Ravens, Cowboys, and Redskins. Not exactly potent opposition. (The Viking defense could even look good against that schedule.) Having locked up the division last week, one expects the Eagles to perhaps have a letdown emotionally. All this sets the stage for an upset Packer win. Prediction: Packers.

Giants @ Redskins
Yet another devastating defense to devour Eli Manning. What a way to start a career. Prediction: Redskins.

Steelers @ Jaguars
I finally saw Leftwich in action last week. What I saw tallied with my expectations based on statistics. I've pointed out several times this season that Leftwich puts up good yardage numbers, but not too many touchdowns. Against the Vikings, the Jags moved the ball reasonably well but were unable to put the ball in the end zone. Drives would stall in the red zone and they would have to settle for field goals. It's not necessarily Leftwich's fault. I saw him throw a beautiful touch pass over the arms of the Viking defender and hit his receiver's outstretched hands in the end zone, only to see the receiver drop the ball. There is clearly potential there, and if he can get a better receiving corps down the road, it will be interesting to see Byron develop. I am getting concerned about Pittsburgh. Big Ben is playing more like a rookie now, and how long can they continue to ride the Bus so heavily? I know Duce will be back this week, but as we saw with Randy Moss, hamstring injuries have a tendency to hang around. Anyway, for this game the Steeler defense will just be too much for Jacksonville. Prediction: Steelers.

Cowboys @ Seahawks
Both teams feature stellar coaches with four NFC titles between them, and unpredictable, inconsistent play from the players. Both made the playoffs last year, and both are struggling just to look respectable this year. Of the two, Seattle has played better and a touch more consistently. Prediction: Seahawks.

Last Week: 12-4
Season: 105-71

Strategic Communication

The Defense Science Board has written an interesting report about the US failure to explain itself to the world. The board recommends that the US pursue more vigorous "strategic communication" through a non-profit and non-partisan Center for Strategic Communication which would effectively be a marketing department for the government. It sounds silly, but is actually a good idea. The New York Times says

The report compares the national security challenge of the post-Sept. 11 world to the decades-long struggle against Soviet Communism. But the study then argues that the government's cold-war-era communications institutions have not understood that the Islamic world - and extremists operating in the Islamic world - present different challenges. The report scolds the government for casting the new threat of Islamic extremism in a way that offends a large portion of those living in the Muslim world.

"In stark contrast to the cold war, the United States today is not seeking to contain a threatening state empire, but rather seeking to convert a broad movement within Islamic civilization to accept the value structure of Western Modernity - an agenda hidden within the official rubric of a 'War on Terrorism,'" the report states.

"Today we reflexively compare Muslim 'masses' to those oppressed under Soviet rule," the report adds. "This is a strategic mistake. There is no yearning-to-be-liberated-by-the-U.S. groundswell among Muslim societies - except to be liberated perhaps from what they see as apostate tyrannies that the U.S. so determinedly promotes and defends."

Clearly, one of the great pre-war errors was a gross misjudgment of the Iraqi people's response to being freed from Saddam. The nation's leaders simply assumed their world views would be shared by all, failing to understand that people in other parts of the world, with other cultures and backgrounds, may have a fundamentally different view of the world. This disconnect between American and Arab world-views is a major component driving the insurgency in Iraq and the continuing problems the US has with the people of that region. What this Center would do, among other things, is to provide mechanisms by which the American viewpoint can be explained to and understood by others.

The report makes its case by saying

For some the case for strategic communication is not self-evident. Global media already provide an abundance of information they suggest. "Why can't CNN, Fox, or MSNBC do it?" But commercial media are selective in ways that serve news and business interests first. And few politicians, corporations, or advocacy groups are content to leave their political campaigns, business objectives, and policy agendas to improvisation or the media. The U.S. Government needs a strategic communication capability that is planned, directed, coordinated, funded, and conducted in ways that support the nation's interests.

As they say, the politician, in trying to explain his or her views to the public, would not simply rely on the news media to do it. Rather, the politician hires a staff of people whose job it is to communicate what the campaign or administration is trying to do. If a political campaign has this sophistication, why does the US government not, especially in an environment where our actions are so misunderstood around the world, a misunderstanding that is manifested in much of the violence that undermines our efforts. The government need to do a better job explaining to the world, especially the Islamic world, what they are trying to achieve, and why such goals are good for those who would benefit.